And so, now, it all seems to come down to this:
The Hispanic vote.
After all the hype, all the speculation and all the talk, the sole drama pertaining to our state’s first-ever caucus of importance will be the neck-and-neck race between Democratic frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama; and, provided the way each candidate has started his or her rush-hour campaign in Las Vegas, it appears that the resolution to that drama will be provided by the Valley’s Hispanic population.
Who would’ve ever thought?
Clinton’s first day in Las Vegas following her improbable victory in the New Hampshire primaries was notable for how many women came to see her; Obama’s first day here demonstrated his strong gravitational pull on black residents; but both candidates no doubt are vying for the support of the Hispanics who constitute no less than 25 percent of Southern Nevada’s population.
On Thursday, January 10, Clinton canvassed door-to-door in a highly Hispanic neighborhood whose representative in the state Assembly, Ruben Kihuen, is a close ally of Clinton’s and one of the state’s most persuasive Hispanic figures. Then she held court at Las Vegas’ most popular Mexican restaurant, Lindo Michoacan, where the most authentic and moving moment occurred when one man, concerned about the legal status of his wife, voiced his problem out of the blue, and Clinton responded, with all humanity: “No woman is illegal.” The crowd went wild.
The following day, Obama spoke at a rally at the state’s Culinary Union, where the shibboleth of the hour was “!Si, se puede!,” not only the Spanish translation of Obama’s national catchphrase since the New Hampshire defeat but also an invocation of the Mexican labor leader Cesar Chavez’s historical rally cry.
The state’s Culinary Union had already granted Obama their endorsement, which is a substantial tool in his effort to accrue Hispanic votes. For the union, the state’s largest at 60,000 members, is more than 40 percent Hispanic. With fewer than 75,000 people expected by most local and national pundits to turn out for the caucus on January 19, even 10,000 Hispanic votes can be decisive.
Yet Clinton’s chief tool has the potential to not merely offset Obama’s culinary endorsement but perhaps even dwarf it, and that is widespread political endorsements. If public Clinton supporters Kihuen, Rory Reid, Shelley Berkley, Chris Giunchigliani and the newspapers El Mundo and Las Vegas Sun can deliver Clinton their respective constituencies, which altogether contain hundreds of thousands of Hispanics, victory for the New York senator would be unstoppable.
Clinton’s rapport with Hispanics looked solid at Lindo Michoacan, where hundreds of Hispanics watched themselves on live news feeds on the overhead televisions and looked exhilarated with their undeniable political importance. Moreover, this past week, Clinton’s National Hispanic Leadership Council, composed of various Southwest Hispanic leaders, campaigned for Clinton throughout Nevada, trying to reach Hispanic voters.
Obama’s Hispanic support did not look as strong after he left the Culinary Union’s headquarters. At a town hall meeting at Del Sol High School, the Spanish accents and Hispanic faces in the crowd were sparse enough that they could be detected, individual by individual. And when Hispanic-central issues arose, such as immigration and higher education for ESL students, a notable hush fell over the crowd.
But, in all reality, Obama’s galvanizing power might just prove that the Hispanic vote is not as pivotal as it now appears. More than 2,500 people packing the Del Sol gymnasium to hear Obama speak, and some 2,000 who couldn’t get in standing outside in the January chill, go to show that the Illinois senator can move the masses.