LV Weekly

Betting on football? Here’s some tips and trends to consider at the window

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Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers have a new stadium — which can typically carry with it a rough adjustment period. Bet accordingly.

Given the way Seattle stomped Denver in the Super Bowl seven months ago, Las Vegas sports books will be hard-pressed to find anyone willing to bet against the Seahawks. The defending champs enter the 2014 season as Las Vegas’ top power-rated team. They’re favorites in all but one game in CG Technology sports books’ full-season lines—a Week 13 trip to archrival San Francisco—and the top Super Bowl choice at 4-to-1 odds at the South Point.

But recent history warns of the pitfalls of betting on the defending champions. Not only has no team repeated since the ’04-’05 New England Patriots, but only one team has as much as won a playoff game. Six of the nine teams posted a losing record against the spread during their title-defense campaign.

That evidence might support the belief of the NFL as a parity-driven league, but South Point’s future odds may digress. Including the Seahawks, six teams rate above the rest with a combined probability of 60 percent of winning the next Super Bowl.

Here are the other five with their Super Bowl odds and a betting note.

Denver Broncos (13-to-2) Super Bowl runners-up have been more reliable the following season by most measures; four of the last five posted winning records against the spread and three won at least one playoff game.

San Francisco 49ers (7-to-1) Be wary of the new Levi’s Stadium—home-field advantage typically takes a while to kick in, and oddsmakers will continue to give the 49ers the same adjustment they got for years at Candlestick Park.

New England Patriots (7-to-1) The Patriots are an NFL-best 91-64-5 against the spread over the past decade, but just 6-11 versus the number in the playoffs since their last Super Bowl win.

Green Bay Packers (8-to-1) The best way to bet on Green Bay might not be point spreads, but totals. The offense-centric Packers have pushed 60 percent of their games over the over/under since winning Super Bowl 45.

New Orleans Saints (13-to-1) Oddsmakers rate the Superdome as the best home-field advantage in football, and despite the inflated spreads, the Saints went 8-0-straight-up and 7-1 against the spread at home last season.

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Case Keefer

Case Keefer has spent more than a decade covering his passions at Greenspun Media Group. He's written about and supervised ...

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