A sophisticated look at line-moving and dog-show handicapping from Wynn’s Johnny Avello

I’m what is known as an “unsophisticated” sports bettor. I say this because many years ago, Johnny Avello said this of me. It was at a CineVegas wrap party at Green Valley Ranch, and I told Avello that I often made sports wagers while hastily scanning a betting sheet as I'm walking to the counter.

“You,” he said, “are an unsophisticated bettor.”

I mentioned that I also happen to be an unsophisticated dancer, an unsophisticated conversationalist and even an unsophisticated stenographer, but it is worth noting that my variety of bettor is fairly cynical. I’ve long suspected that sports books never actually lose money on the outcome of any game, because those in Avello’s position set lines designed to draw equal betting interest on both sides of a contest.

If a betting line is posted at 3½ and money cascades to the underdog, sports book officials change the number to entice bettors to put money on the favorite. That was the case in the betting for Sunday’s Super Bowl XLVI. The Patriots opened as a 3½-point favorite at the Wynn. When money flooded to the Giants, the line moved to 3 to draw action on the Pats to cover heavy losses.

During an interview on Friday’s episode of “Kats With the Dish” on KUNV 91.5-FM (which also is posted in this column), I put it to Avello this way: If the house controls the betting line so wagers are balanced for each side, it can’t lose, correct?

“False. No,” he said. Then he explained, “When we open up the number and move it, every time we move a number, we are putting ourselves in a spot that we’d rather not be in, because by moving the number from 3½ to 3, all of the people who bet the 3½ would win if the game fell (on) 3. And everybody that laid 3 would get their money back.”

Each move of the line exposes the casino to a new way to lose money, or at least not win money.

“In this particular game, I can get all of the money I want back on New England,” Avello said during an interview recorded the week of the Super Bowl. “All I have to do is go to 1. Everybody will say, ‘Sure, I’ll take New England at minus-1,’ and I’ve balanced out those books perfectly. But if New England wins by 2, I pay all the people who took the Giants at plus-3 ½ and plus-3 and everything leading that way, and everyone who laid the Patriots to win by 1, I’d have to pay them, too, on both sides.

“Moving the line is dangerous. We’re very reluctant to do it, especially in a game like this.”

Avello said he took several six-figure bets in the two weeks leading to Sunday afternoon’s kickoff, and every one was either the Giants with the points (at 3½ or 3), or on the money line, to win outright. The proposition bets on a game like the Super Bowl help mitigate any heavy losses. Many prop bets are at long odds favoring the casino, but one long shot -- the safety at plus-900 -- was paid.

“(Prop bets) help, but they will not overcome the money on the game itself,” Avello said. “There might be 200 propositions up there, but most people want to bet on the game itself.”

On Monday, Avello said the Wynn turned in a modest profit after Sunday’s outcome, with the Giants covering the 3 points by winning outright, 21-17. The “under” came in, which was 54 points, and bettors wagered mostly on the Giants and the under. Still, the casino made enough on the props, Pats wagers and “over” picks to come out ahead.

I’m thankful for that because we cannot have anything bad happen to Avello’s fortress, which has become a haven of non-sports betting odds. He set the Oscars field again this year, and in one remarkable exchange talked of handicapping the field for this weekend’s Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show at Madison Square Garden in New York.

“This is my sixth year doing it, and two out of the five years I’ve got it right,” Avello said as he pulled his odds sheet from his jacket pocket. “I like the Pekingese this year (at 6-to-1). The Black Cocker (Spaniel) is the No. 1 dog if you look at Dog News and see what these dogs have done through 2011. He’s won everything leading up to this. He’s my second choice.”

Avello is playing a hunch on the Westminster.

“My first choice is, I went out a little bit, I went with the Pekingese. He’s my top choice, out of the Toy category,” he said. “You know, Year of the Dragon, all that (laughs). I have the Cocker second (at 7-to-1).”

Having been reminded that the because the Westminster is a non-sporting event, one that is judged, and there is no open sports book betting allowed, my "KWTD" cohort Tricia McCrone made a side wager on the show and took the Pekingese.

“I’ll bet you lunch,” she said to me.

““Want me to tell you where to go, Kats?” Avello said. “Go with the Affenpinscher. Him and the Pekingese are neck-and-neck in the Toy category.”

The Affenpincher is going off at 9-to-1. I’ll take those odds, and Avello’s counsel, any time.

Follow John Katsilometes on Twitter at Twitter.com/JohnnyKats. Also, follow “Kats With the Dish” at Twitter.com/KatsWithTheDish.