1. Many are calling this year’s tournament “wide open,” a description heard frequently that rarely proves accurate. Only twice in the past decade has a team won the tournament without entering as a No. 1 seed, which is good news for Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia and Oregon. The only exceptions: the title runs by traditional power Connecticut in 2011 and ’14. The Huskies are a No. 9 seed this year, with a potential matchup against top-overall seed Kansas looming in the round of 32.
2. A non-No. 1 seed to watch is No. 4 seed Kentucky. Love or hate him, coach John Calipari has achieved historic postseason success since arriving in Lexington, reaching at least the Elite Eight in all five of his NCAA Tournament appearances with Kentucky, making four Final Fours and winning one championship. By comparison, potential Sweet 16 opponent North Carolina hasn’t notched a single Final Four during the same span.
3. Cinderella exists, but she usually goes home early. For eight years running, at least one team seeded 12th or higher has won a first-round game in the tournament, but those teams have typically fizzled out immediately afterward, going 8-28 (and 16-20 against the spread) in later rounds. Plus, six of those eight victories have come when No. 12 and 13 seeds have squared off in round of 32 games.
4. Beware the Big 12, one way or another. For the third straight year, it’s considered the strongest conference in the country headed into the tournament, but it has failed to live up to that distinction the past two years. The Midwestern conference’s teams have gone a combined 11-14 (and 8-17 against the spread) in 2014 and ’15 tournament games, and over the past decade, the Big 12 has produced just two Final Four berths, by Kansas in 2008 and ’12.
5. Two contenders were almost totally unforeseen by bookmakers earlier in the year—No. 1 seed Oregon and No. 2 seed Xavier. The Ducks were 100-to-1 to win the title at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook for months before emerging as Pac-12 champions. They’re now 15-to-1. And the Musketeers opened 200-to-1 before trimming by winning 16 of their first 17 games. Their price is currently 25-to-1.
