We’ve entered the part of the college football season when bettors and fans alike think they know much more about teams than they actually do. Analysts implore everyone not to overreact to the first week or two, but those cries tend to get muted a quarter of the way through teams’ 12-game schedules. When October nears, it’s like no one can resist the urge to start filling in the College Football Playoff bracket.
With sports books around town offering Alabama, Ohio State and Louisville all at 5-to-1 or less in future odds to win the national championship, the perception is that three of four playoff spots are reserved. But it almost certainly won’t play out that way. Consider that last year at this time, only one team that ultimately reached the playoff, Michigan State, was posted at less than 20-to-1 in the futures.
Each of the first two CFP champions, Alabama last season and Ohio State two years ago, had already lost a game at this point to fall out of the immediate conversation. The 2015 Crimson Tide and 2014 Buckeyes were both posted at 20-to-1 through four weeks. In the year before the playoff started, eventual national champion Florida State went undefeated but remained under the radar after the first month. Bookmakers had the Seminoles at 18-to-1 through four games.
The past three champions carrying virtually identical prices at the end of September could be written off as a statistical oddity and doesn’t guarantee anything this year. But it should provide a lesson: The value is not in backing teams that look like locks early in the year, but finding the right ones lurking within striking range. Here are three teams that fit the profile, all sitting at 20-to-1 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Florida State. This year’s Seminoles are the most obvious parallel to the ’14 Buckeyes and ’15 Crimson Tide. They boast as much talent as any team in the nation, but everything conspired against them in their 63-20 Week 3 loss at Louisville. Many have suggested that margin of defeat could prevent Florida State from getting real playoff consideration, but that’s nonsense. If FSU wins out and Louisville gets upset once or twice, the ’noles will be in great position.
Texas A&M. In January, Clemson came within minutes of winning the title and notching the first-ever 15-0 season, but were available at an inflated price all season because the program wasn’t considered among the elite. The Aggies could follow the same path this year. Few teams in the nation have a better trio of wins than A&M, which has beaten UCLA, Auburn on the road and Arkansas at a neutral site.
Stanford. Having defeated UCLA, USC and Kansas State, Stanford is one team with an early résumé that can compare with Texas A&M’s. The Cardinal isn’t always taken seriously as a contender because of its style of play. With most programs speeding up pace and spreading out offenses, Stanford slows down and slugs it out behind Heisman-candidate running back Christian McCaffrey. But doing something different than the majority of teams can be more asset than detriment.
