When UNLV economist Keith Schwer authored a report saying the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository would have a favorable economic impact on southern Nevada, opponents of the dump took him to task. Chief among the criticism was the suggestion that the report was rigged because it was underwritten by the Department of Energy. And, in 2001, Schwer authored a report for Clark County that concluded the dump would have a negative economic impact, although it took into account a potential accident and other variables.
The Las Vegas Sun led the scrutiny of Schwer's objectivity last week with a headline that said, "Report on Yucca economic benefit paid for by Energy Department."
Clark County Commissioner Myrna Williams joined in by writing an open letter in the Feb. 8 Review-Journal that read, in part, "(T)he report was commissioned by the DOE, (s)o it is no surprise that the results are skewed in favor of the 'benefits'…The flawed assumptions and results in the DOE's report will serve only to mislead the public…"
Schwer's credibility was clearly under attack. And yet, his statistics were used in subsequent articles by R-J and will undoubtedly be used by most other local news outlet in the future. Last year, some 200 news articles by the R-J, Sun, Associated Press and Reno Gazette-Journal were pinned on statistics and analyses by Schwer.
In fact, in a city rife with oddsmakers, Schwer stands out as the official wizard of educated guesswork. For 17 years, he's been the go-to man for anyone in need of numbers on which to base public policy or develop a view of our economic surroundings.
So who is this guy? He's a registered Independent, for one, who maintains that his reports are unbiased regardless of who funded them. "We (he and his staff) don't pick sides. Then you would be using the university incorrectly," he says, while sitting in his office conference room at UNLV for a recent interview. "I don't make any money off of it—I don't make one dollar more or one dollar less (as a result of report conclusions). I don't make political contributions, and I'm not a part of anyone's political war chest."
Schwer is affable and fidgety, cagey and earnest all at once—not unlike economic forcasting itself. As defined by Webster's, economics is "a social science that deals with the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services." But it's been called by others voodoo, or mostly horse sense, or a platform for people with an agenda to advance it.
Schwer calls it "the most scientific of the social sciences" —giving it precisely the inexact nod that seems to characterize the field and, at least in this interview, the man.
He's wearing a standard red tie and white shirt, and says of his work, "I can tell you that something will happen, but I just can't tell you when." Sort of like the return of Christ, or the Cubs winning the World Series, or a tourist hitting the big one in a casino.
So here's Keith Schwer's extreme—or not so extreme— take on some Las Vegas topics:
• Yucca Mountain. "I have my personal opinion but I try to push the story forward, so I prefer not to say…But I do have family here. Not only do I have family here, but I have grandchildren here."
• The longevity of the Vegas economic boom: "Are we a vulnerable economy? Yes. We do not have a diversified economy. It (a single industry economy) is usually at high risk. We do very well if that industry is doing well, and it is. You can't argue with success. And there's nothing wrong with being lucky…We are growing on growth, part of it is just anticipation of growth…But yes, it will stop someday. I just don't know when. Things happen in cycles."
• Gambling. "Do I like gambling? Oh no. I am an economist and I am risk-averse. It's dirty and I don't like the noise. It's not what I call recreation, or it's not the kind of recreation I enjoy. But for some people, it's obviously very enjoyable. I'm the last person to tell other people what to do."
• Las Vegas lifestyle. "It's easy to do your work here…and the grocery store is close and the airport is easy to get in and out of. I feel sorry for the poor suckers in Washington D.C. who have to ride the train to work every day. I really am a Westerner. There's an outlook to life here that I like, and there's the sunshine, and that makes up for whatever Vegas doesn't have."
Whatever Vegas doesn't have?
"Well I don't think there's a lack of culture here, exactly. That raises the question, 'What is culture?' I mean, I have a friend in New York who says they have all of the shows and museums, but he seldom went out anyway."
• Political participation. "The deep abiding concern I have in this community is the assimilation and generation of civic participation that we do not have here…What we have is rational ignorance—people are so busy with their lives and then the probability of affecting change is so small that many simply ignore it [political involvement.] It doesn't pay."
• Education: "I am deeply concerned about education," he says. "It is not a poor state. Schools are exceedingly important. I am concerned about performance in education."
So what needs to be done about it?
"Well," he says, "You know, it's difficult to—well, let's say this: There's a high co-efficient of variation in that."
Exactly.