By most accounts, Vegas getting the 2007 NBA All-Star Game would be a good thing. Another big-time event pumping millions of dollars into gaming, er, city coffers; the eyes of the world once again on us; an influx of NBA cheerleaders. But one interested observer says landing basketball's version of the Grammys should be seen as another feather in Tourism City's cap and not as a precursor to getting a pro team. Kenny White, general manager of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which supplies betting lines to casinos, says the All-Star Game will do little to hasten the day that families will shell out the equivalent of a month's worth of day care to watch Kobe Bryant dunk or Derek Jeter nab a pop fly or Randy Moss do an FCC-inciting touchdown celebration or—why hasn't pro hockey been floated as a possibility?—Yaromir Yagr backslap a puck into the net.
For all its convention- and big-meeting-hosting prowess, White says Vegas has done nothing, nada, to show it can support a major-league franchise. Often cited as a strength, he says, our expanding-by-the-minute population is good for keeping Vegas atop fastest-growing-city surveys and supplying casinos with workers for the casinos, but won't be enough to sustain a franchise.
"One tenth of the population works graveyard and one-tenth works swing shift, so you have a significant portion of people who won't be going to games," White says. "We shouldn't be fooled into thinking that selling out the All-Star Game means that you can support an NBA team."
Not that White is against the game—it draws minimal betting, he says, so whatever casinos lose in wagering would be recouped in the expected $27 million windfall. "Thomas & Mack can host this event and everyone would make money," he says.
Asked to predict when Vegas will have a team, he's less certain: "In 10 years, I think we'll be more ready (to have this discussion)."
Ten years would put us at 2015. By that time, Oscar Goodman—assuming he runs and wins in 2007 and that he can't change a city law limiting mayors to three terms—will have been out of office for four years, his dream of a pro team (Goodman put his mouth to a dream locals have harbored for years) in the hands of a successor who may or may not share his passion. Hard to fathom anyone else crashing Major League Baseball meetings, Elvis and showgirls in tow, to lure the Montreal Expos from Canada (Washington, D.C., got the team, renaming it the Nationals). Harder still to fathom such aggressiveness in the face of this glaring omission: We don't have a place for a baseball team to play. MLB averaged nearly 35,000 fans per stadium in the 2004 season. Cashman Field, home of the Las Vegas 51s, can seat 9,934.
But D.C. succeeded largely because taxpayers financed a $584 million stadium; pigs might fly before the Big Gaming Inc. softens its stance toward publicly financing a stadium. MGM Mirage CEO Terrence Lanni opposes subsidies, snorting that since his company has invested billions in Nevada without asking for tax breaks, pro sports doesn't deserve any gimmes. Square this with Palms owner George Maloof's assessment that the city (read: you and me) should front 85 percent of stadium costs—"If Vegas isn't ready to turn over a state-of-the-art arena," he told the Review-Journal—"then it doesn't deserve a team and you can see the makings of a rumble"—and you've got the makings of a pretty good rumble. Kid Cool (Maloof) vs. King Terry. Probably a pick-'em.
Then there's the whole crapshoot of actually getting taxpayers—and the lawmakers they elect—to agree to funding a stadium. Results of recent attempts to obtain public financing for major projects have been so-so. Backers of a proposed $250 million academic medical center in Downtown only got $5.5 million of the $25 million they'd sought. State lawmakers conditioned a $13.5 million taxpayer gift to Nevada State College if administrators there could raise $10 million; the school is woefully short of the goal.
"With any stadium," White says, "you're going to have to have luxury boxes and suites, especially for the hotels, and most of the time, they may be the only part of the facility that is routinely sold out. Hotels have never been ones to send people away from their properties."
Though he's an avid baseball fan—Major League Baseball considers Las Vegas a home market for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants—White says football has the best chance of making it here, arguing that "you only have to fill the stadium for eight games" and, theoretically, can use the venue for other events throughout the year. A large body of research paints an opposing picture of a stadium, saying they drain public resources, offer scant economic benefit to communities and primarily enrich team owners.
Though the Thomas & Mack Center is an NBA-worthy facility, White doesn't think the NBA team is a slam-dunk proposition: "You have to fill it for 41 games and unless you have a team in the heat of a playoff race in March, it's going to be hard to fill (in the spring). We have a hard time supporting the (UNLV Runnin') Rebels."
All these obstacles and we haven't even talked about the B-word.
White estimates that prohibiting betting on the NBA—something the city might have to do to get a franchise—could cost casinos $300 million annually, forcing the team to work overtime to recoup the investment. Says White: "With an NBA team, it would be a break-even proposition for the city at best."