The first team to enter the NCAA Tournament undefeated since UNLV in 1991 is also historic by another local measure. No. 1 seed Wichita State (34-0) is battering betting lines at a remarkable rate. The Shockers boast the top against-the-spread record, 24-6-1. That’s something worth remembering before moseying up to the window to wager against the mid-major Missouri Valley Conference monster.
It’s probably best not to pick against the No. 1 seeds for March Madness’ first weekend anyway. Top-seeded teams are 37-3 in the first two rounds of action over the past five years, and 23-17 against the spread. Picking one of the four and riding them through the Final Four might be best, as a No. 1 seed has emerged as the champion in six of the past seven years and 10 of 14 tournaments since the turn of the century.
This year, Wichita State has the highest odds of the No. 1 seeds to win it all at 15-to-1 entering the tournament, with Florida 9-to-2, Arizona 7-to-1 and Virginia 12-to-1. Stick with that group or another team seeded no worse than fourth at odds of 30-to-1 or less to cut down the nets.
Twenty-five years have passed since a team not seeded one through four won the tournament, and at least a decade since worse than a 30-to-1 shot came through. A couple teams worth monitoring in the middle of that pack early in the tournament are No. 2 seeds Michigan and Villanova, both listed at 25-to-1. The Wolverines are 15-3 against the spread in March Madness under coach John Beilein, and the Wildcats went 21-9 against the spread this season to pester oddsmakers as much as the Shockers.