Exponential change has been the hallmark of Las Vegas' last quarter century, so much so that the beginning of the next hundred years is unlikely to bring further drastic evolution. What we can expect instead is a consolidation of several well-advanced trends. The Vegas of the 21st century is almost certain to be wealthier, more cosmopolitan—and more sharply divided.
There are, of course, two Vegases. One is the Potemkin Village along the Strip, where America plays and Las Vegans work. Then there is the quieter, even anonymous Vegas the tourists don't see and where we live existences almost completely divorced from the glittering Xanadus that dominate our skyline.
That bifurcation is likely to be exacerbated by events already in motion. With the completion of the Harrah's-Caesars merger, the Strip will essentially be the private fiefdom of two mega-corporations while isolated competitors scratch and claw for their patch of sunlight. Along it and around it, condominium developments providing getaway homes for the very wealthy continue to ascend. As the consumption along Las Vegas Boulevard grows ever more conspicuous, the disconnect between Tourist Vegas and Residential Vegas is likely to worsen.
In contrast, Oscar Goodman may be turning the corner on his crusade to save Downtown. While no middle ground as yet exists between the high-rises being planned for the affluent and the existing housing, mostly occupied by the very poor, an influx of new residents with capital to burn can only bode well for old Vegas. For one thing, in order to support a new concentration of residents, Downtown will have to diversify its offerings, whether in terms of essentials, amenities or entertainment.
Glitter Gulch will always be the key vestige of Vegas past, but casinos are now peripheral to solving the problem of what ails Fremont Street. If the components of the master plan continue to fall into place—especially the performing arts center—Las Vegans will finally have a reason to go Downtown that isn't predicated on gambling or jury duty.
Las Vegas will always be a synonym for "disrepute" in the world's mind, and that outlaw image continues to be the big draw. In an era in which casino gambling can be found from San Diego to Niagara Falls, gambling per se is no longer the main ingredient. This is borne out by the declining number of dollars spent per customer on gambling. With middle-class income stagnant across the country and the array of Vegas entertainment options increasing by the day, John Q. Customer is dividing the same number of dollars among more and more temptations. Of these, gambling is but one—and not such a good value on the Strip, either. When you can gamble in 48 states, the lingering allure of Vegas is what a friend of mine called "a sleazy Disneyland." To the extent that Vegas is perceived as a morality-free zone, it will live long and prosper.
Although the Strip is now an oligarchy of MGM Mirage and Harrah's, there are signs of economic diversification elsewhere, even if most of the recent growth has been construction and infrastructure. The coveted high-tech expansion requires a well-educated workforce, so it bodes well that the share of college graduates in our population has doubled from the 9 percent of 25 years ago. Meanwhile, the ethnic makeup of our workforce is changing—the percentage of Hispanics in the Valley, for instance, is three times what it was in 1980—and companies and power brokers that aren't comfortable with a bilingual, multicultural Vegas are going to have to get with the program.
There are a few negative portents. Our median income is up, but real income is down. The average working woman is older (around 44 years old), and her median income is slipping. So-called "negative externalities" like smog, congestion and a lack of public services could continue to drive Las Vegans to the suburbs and beyond.
And while visitation continues to grow, the rate of increase gets smaller and smaller. It also tends to spike at five-year intervals, so last year's boom may not be replicated until 2009. Which is OK: It may take that long to get the next megaresort online ... unless Americans decide to descend upon Vegas en masse for the unveiling of the Hooters casino. Strap yourselves in.