Most every successful football handicapper—and even the nonsuccessful one who writes for weekly publications—has some kind of allegedly tried-and-true, dependable system.
Some employ formulas to rank offenses and defenses and use the figures to create their optimum point spread. Others weigh personnel and team strength to calculate which side of the number they should favor.
Some ask their 3-year-old daughter.
That may not seem like a wise game plan on the surface, but it sure worked this year for Wayne Newton, who topped my field of nine Las Vegas celebrities to win Sal's Celebrity Football Picks, and its traveling trophy, the Golden Nerf.
Mr. Las Vegas has been a part of my football contest since its inception but had never challenged for the title until this season—and Newton credits young Lauren for his rise to the top.
"She's quite a football expert," Newton joked. "But she won't tell me her secret."
Mr. Las Vegas went 3-0 in the final weekend of the regular season to edge inaugural champion Lance Burton, master magician at the Monte Carlo, who won the Nerf in 2001. Other past winners include Harrah's headliner Clint Holmes (2002), New York-New York comedian Rita Rudner (2003) and last year's champ, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman.
"When Oscar won last year, I felt like he had wanted it so badly that I was thrilled for him—he is such a good friend of mine," Newton said. "But instead of allowing him to get conceited over his win, I figured the best thing to do was to follow it by winning the next year. This evens everything out. I'm going to put the ball in my red room, where I keep most of my memorabilia and look at it every day and smile."
Goodman was gracious in yielding the title to his longtime buddy.
"It's only appropriate that I be displaced as Mr. Las Vegas by Wayne Newton," the mayor said on Wednesday, after he added his signature to the Nerf. Newton will keep the trophy for at least a year, until a new champion is crowned.
Newton, who headlines at the Flamingo, follows the NFL "as much as I can," and says his favorite team is the Redskins. He also notes there's a player in this year's draft he'll be keeping an eye on, as will many fans.
"That kid [Vince] Young is going to be someone to be reckoned with for a long, long time," Newton says of the quarterback who led the University of Texas Longhorns to the national championship last month. "I think he's going to set the new standard and pick up where Joe Montana and those guys left off. He is going to be a special player."
OK, but between now and the draft, there's one more matter to deal with—this little game in Detroit over the weekend. So who does the Midnight Idol pick at the 11th hour to win Super Bowl XL? As always, he deferred to the family expert.
"I asked her who will win this Sunday, and she told me—the team that wants it the most."
Danke Schoen, Lauren. Now all we have to do is wait to see which team that is.
My money is on the Steelers, but in a very competitive game: Pittsburgh 26, Seattle 23.
Sal DeFilippo will pour champagne over his head no matter who wins Sunday.