Feel it yet? Has it hit you? Has it? That early, third-in-the-nation presidential-caucus fever? If not, you’d better catch it. Soon. Our political reputation (if we even have one) is at stake. If not ours, then certainly Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s. He finagled us into these pre-presidential pick-’em sweepstakes, then told everyone we’d show up in droves, 100,000 strong on January 19. He’s counting on us, er, you.
On a recent Saturday in early December, inside West Prep junior high, there was little sense caucus fever had caught on. A hundred or so folks learned policy and procedure, egged on by black politicians. Organizers had hoped for five times that. Same story days later at Rancho High, where a mock caucus for Hispanics drew 200, many of them only there to hear Democratic presidential hopeful and fellow Latino Bill Richardson. For a recent Henderson event, Democrats sent out 7,000 mailers—only 150 people showed up. Republicans haven’t fared much better, averaging a whopping 50 people at each of their hundred-plus mock events.
So is all this pre-caucusing—the mock caucuses, the primers for high-schoolers, the how-tos conducted by the candidates’ campaigns—an exercise in futility? Is it time to worry? If we don’t produce 100,000 or half that, who’ll clean the egg of Reid’s face? Off ours?
Of course, the people paid to ensure we show up say they aren’t fazed by the tepid turnout. They expect a last-minute spike of excitement, even if there’s no history of such a surge.
“At first, our primary target was active Democrats, those most likely to vote in non-presidential years,” says Kenya Pierce, caucus organizer for the Nevada Democratic Party. “Now we’re targeting inactive voters. We didn’t give things away. Our goal was 500 people at each of the citywide caucuses. We could’ve seen a bigger turnout at these events, but we didn’t have food. The reality of it is, most new things take time.”
Hans Gullickson, caucus director for the Nevada State Republican Party, is a notch more upbeat. “More people have attended these events than have ever attended precinct meetings,” he says. Since this is our first dance at this level and we don’t have any history to base voter turnout on, he says it doesn’t make sense to make predictions. “A lot is going to depend on how motivated people are for the candidate.”
So maybe Ron Paul—who raised $6 million in 24 hours from 58,000 people, half of whom donated for the first time—should organize all mock caucuses from here to January 19. Or not. A late-October event for the Republican presidential hopeful netted about 30. Many emerged enlightened. “It was a lot of fun, and informative, too,” writes user SteveMorgan1311 of the Ron Paul Meetup Group online. “I still am a little confused about which order things are done, but I have a much more clear vision of what we should do next as Ron Paul supporters.”
Or maybe caucuses should be explained as Roger Ebert might: through movies. At a recent Henderson event, Young Democrats Southern Vice President Samantha Steelman had groups decide on their favorite movie the same way voters will pick candidates: by standing in front of designated areas assigned to them. (The Godfather won.)
I ask Pierce if the lower-than-expected interest is due to a perceived disconnect between White House politics and what goes on in the daily lives of voters. Possibly, she says.
If my lights are about to get cut off, why should I come out on January 19? I’ve got more immediate concerns. “We’re telling people to bring resolutions about the issues they care about, and those issues reach the local, county and state forums and possibly the national spotlight, and it’s possible they can create change,” she says.
I ask Pierce and Gullickson if Reid wrote a check we simply can’t cash. Gullickson says it’s too early to tell: “Ask me after the caucus.”
Says Pierce: “Sen. Reid said 100,000, but organizers haven’t prepared to meet that number. They are focused on energizing and organizing. We had people walking to our event [at West Prep]. A lot of people want to base things on the past and our history of low voter turnout, but the campaigns have done lots of good work. The caucus is just the beginning of the process. We’re excited.”
Even if many aren’t.