Your bracket might be busted by the end of the first weekend, but sports betting always offers the opportunity to buy back in.
Not only will betting lines and proposition markets be open on every game of the NCAA Tournament, but future odds will also update after every round. That means you never need to be out of the action as long as you have a handle on what teams to bet on or against.
Here’s a quick region-by-region overview of the tournament to help with some quick thoughts on most of the contenders. Regional odds are openers from before the tournament from Boyd Sports, with all teams available at 50-to-1 or lower listed.
South Region
Odds to win: No. 1 seed Auburn +105 (i.e. risking $100 to win $105), No. 2 seed Michigan State +480, No. 3 seed Iowa State +550, No. 4 seed Texas A&M 12-to-1, No. 5 seed Michigan 22-to-1, No. 6 seed Ole Miss 21-to-1, No. 7 seed Marquette 23-to-1, No. 8 seed Louisville 18-to-1, No. 9 seed Creighton 31-to-1.
Overall top seed Auburn was historically dominant for most of the season but enters the tournament looking vulnerable after three losses in its last four games.
The Tigers couldn’t have asked for a softer landing spot to work through their issues. A potential second-round game against Louisville less than 100 miles from the Cardinals’ home gym in Lexington, Kentucky, looks tricky, but a task the Tigers’ and National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome should be able to handle.
Texas A&M was one of the three aforementioned teams to knock off Auburn, but it took the Aggies’ best effort of the year in a home game. Don’t expect a repeat if they match up in the Sweet 16.
Michigan State, the Big Ten regular-season champions, are dangerous but more offensively limited than its lofty seed implies. Iowa State is the second-best team in this bracket at its peak, but those days have passed after losing Durango High graduate/former UNLV guard Keshon Gilbert to injury and also seeing point guard Tamin Lipsey hobbled.
Auburn would really have to fumble not to come out of the South and it’s been too reliable on the season as a whole to call for such under-performance.
Pick: Auburn +105
West Region
Odds to win: No. 1 seed Florida -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100), No. 2 seed St. John’s 6-to-1, No. 3 seed Texas Tech +550, No. 4 seed Maryland 10-to-1, No. 5 seed Memphis 100-to-1, No. 6 seed Missouri 13-to-1, No. 7 seed Kansas 14-to-1, No. 8 seed Connecticut 26-to-1.
Florida is the hottest team in the country after running through the SEC Tournament and odds reflect as much.
For the first time this year, the Gators are favored to win the national championship at most sports books with odds as low as +250. Typically, it’s not wise to buy on a team at the height of their market rating. And Florida should have plenty of landmines to navigate to reach the Final Four.
St. John’s might be the most fundamentally sound team in the nation led by National Coach of the Year candidate Rick Pitino, but struggles to score as consistently as other contenders. Maryland is ultra-athletic but overly reliant on freshman big man Derik Queen.
Two of the top four favorites to win the title coming into this season are in this region in Kansas (the preseason No. 1) and Connecticut (the back-to-back champions). Either could be formidable if they leave behind disappointing regular seasons.
The best non-Florida team on the floor, however, has been Texas Tech. The Red Raiders’ statistical profile is muted because of time missed by standout duo Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian but they’re both reported to be healthy for the tournament.
Pick: Texas Tech +550
East Region
Odds to win: No. 1 seed Duke -135, No. 2 seed Alabama +430, No. 3 seed Wisconsin 11-to-1, No. 4 seed Arizona +750, No. 5 seed Oregon 32-to-1, No. 6 seed BYU 20-to-1, No. 7 seed St. Mary’s 24-to-1, No. 8 seed Mississippi State 40-to-1, No. 9 seed Baylor 36-to-1, No. 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth 34-to-1.
The status of Duke forward Cooper Flagg’s left ankle might be the most important factor of the whole tournament.
If the likely National Player of the Year and top overall NBA Draft pick remains sidelined with a sprain like he was in the final two games of the ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils could be in trouble as soon as the second round. Either talent-rich Baylor or havoc- minded Mississippi State will not be an easy matchup without Flagg.
If Flagg is fine by tipoff, then Duke should roll through the East. It could even breeze to the national championship as it’s both the most talented team in the nation and the side with the fewest flaws in its statistical profile.
Alabama would need to turn a game into a 3-point shootout and hope to get lucky to beat Duke. Wisconsin would need an transcendent individual performance from breakout senior guard John Tonje, who’s been the second-best player in this region.
The bottom of this bracket could also set up for a Cinderella run with both St. Mary’s and VCU checking a lot of the boxes as capable mid-major threats with slow-paced, defensive-centric styles.
Pick: Wisconsin 11-to-1
Midwest Region
Odds to win: No. 1 seed Houston +135, No. 2 seed Tennessee +350, No. 3 seed Kentucky +850, No. 4 seed Purdue 15-to-1, No. 5 seed Clemson 14-to-1, No. 6 seed Illinois 10-to-1, No. 7 seed UCLA 21-to-1, No. 8 seed Gonzaga +850.
Houston has quietly won 13 games in a row and been every bit as dominant as fellow top seeds Auburn, Duke and Florida.
The Cougars just didn’t get any reward for it. If the Midwest plays to form, Houston will have the toughest path of any No. 1 seed by the betting market.
A potential second-round matchup with Gonzaga is particularly troublesome. The Bulldogs lost a bunch of close games this year but sit as a top 10 team in the nation by most efficiency metrics.
Purdue is another side that grades out better analytically and was unlucky to lose 11 games this season.
Tennessee was in the running for a No. 1 seed until the final week of the regular season. One of the biggest deterrents to its case was that Kentucky beat it twice. Oh, and the Wildcats also defeated Duke in the non-conference.
Houston can’t afford the type of off night that has sunk previous championship aspirations. The good news is, the Cougars haven’t fallen victim to many in winning 27 of its last 28 games.
Pick: Houston +135
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