With fewer than 100 days until the November 3 general election, it’s time again to brace for a fresh wave of campaign signs, mailers and attack ads. 

All eyes are on Nevada’s gubernatorial contest, where Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and Democratic nominee and current Attorney General Aaron Ford seek to differentiate themselves on key issues like affordability, education and housing. 

One recent poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Governors Association in mid-July, has them in a 44% dead heat among 558 likely voters, with 12% undecided. Another, conducted by the Tarrance Group at the end of July for the Republican Governors Association, has Lombardo leading by seven points among 550 likely voters. 

UNLV assistant professor Kenneth Miller, who studies campaign financing and advertising, offers some insight into their messaging tactics in the final stretch.

The Money

Lombardo has been dipping into his massive war chest early and often, with AdImpact reporting that he’s outspent Ford roughly 168 to 1 since December. According to his second-quarter contributions report filed on July 15, Lombardo’s campaign had $9.2 million on hand to Ford’s $2.6 million.

The incumbent has also been boosted by a pair of allied political action committees, with the Better Nevada PAC and Nevada Way PAC raising a combined $14 million for pro-Lombardo messaging in the second quarter. In that same period, the Ford-affiliated Forward Nevada PAC drew $1.1 million.

Miller attributes Lombardo’s heavy PAC advantage to the funding from “large, wealthy sources” who would otherwise “be limited in how much they can donate directly to his campaign.” 

This list includes $5 million from the Republican Governors Association, $2.5 million from local megadonor Robert Bigelow, $1 million from Station Casinos, and at least $4 million from the Service First Fund—a dark-money nonprofit that isn’t required to disclose donors.

Nonetheless, Miller says “campaign spending has very, very small effects early on.” Indeed, when Lombardo defeated then-Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak in 2022, he did so despite being outraised by a 3-2 margin.

“The overwhelming majority of voters aren’t paying any attention to this gubernatorial race right now, and they won’t be paying much attention until September or October,” he says. “So, the spending that happens now is not going to move the needle very much.”

THE ADS

The Better Nevada PAC struck first with the February release of “High Flying Ford,” which hammers Ford for traveling out of state for 137 days in 2024. It doubled down in June with “Workers,” which features Nevada employees questioning Ford’s candidacy in response to a claim that he spent 420 days outside of Nevada since 2019. A related KTNV investigation found that more than half were spent at federal court dates or conferences tied to Ford’s AG duties.

Lombardo’s campaign launched its first official ad in March, adding several more this summer. They emphasize his record on what Miller calls “kitchen table issues”—from “job growth, state savings and investment” to “education, housing and crime policies.”

He says this messaging aligns with Lombardo’s early strategy of distancing himself from President Donald Trump, whose national approval rating hovers in the mid-to-low 30% range. Miller says this is far easier in a cycle that isn’t pulling in as much national money due to a lack of competitive Congressional races. 

“Lombardo wants to make this about purely Nevada concerns and not a referendum on national politics,” Miller says. “You’ll notice in campaign advertising that he does something that Republicans almost never do—he doesn’t mention Trump. He’s running as far from the president as he can, because that’s his pathway to win.”

This analysis was partially spurred by Lombardo’s decision to skip an April Trump event at the AC Hotel Las Vegas Symphony Park. But Lombardo did show up last week at an August 5 Trump rally at Red Rock Resort, noting in a brief speech that Trump’s No Tax on Tips policy “benefits more people in the state of Nevada than anywhere else.”

“He cares about America,” Lombardo said of Trump. “Quite often, when the press and the media runs him down, they think about he’s taking care of his billionaire friends. But those billionaire friends provide jobs. And unless you take care of them, those jobs are absent.”

Ford pounced on the chance to further link the two on economic issues in a social media statement, writing: “While Lombardo chooses to be a human doormat for Trump, I’ll keep fighting to lower costs and put money back in Nevadans’ pockets.”

Ford’s first TV ad, “Enough,” didn’t drop until July 28. In it, he notes that, as a former middle school math teacher, he knows “the Lombardo-Trump economy doesn’t add up,” before tying Lombardo to Nevada’s expensive housing prices, high unemployment rates and 48th ranking for education. 

On August 5, Lombardo struck back with an ad titled, “Math,” in which he employs local educators to again hit Ford on his alleged 420 days of absence. “We were here teaching,” the teachers said. “You know who else was here? Joe Lombardo.”

“Lombardo’s strategy is to play the center as best he can, and Ford will try to paint him as closely as possible to the national Republican brand,” Miller explains.

WILD CARDS

A now-public video of a May traffic stop where Lombardo received a warning after telling a Las Vegas Metro officer, “I’m Joe Lombardo,” drew some buzz this summer. But Miller doubts that this incident, nor criticism of Ford’s travels, will “amount to much.”

“Traveling out of state is not really a big deal,” he says of Ford. “Both will be long forgotten by the time we get to late September and early October.”

Nevada’s significant Latino population could be the true differentiator. The recent Public Policy Polling survey found that 68% of Latino respondents held “an unfavorable opinion” of Lombardo, who has released Spanish ads to chip away at that gap. Ford, a fluent Spanish speaker, has made courting these voters a cornerstone of his campaign. 

Miller notes that Latino voters also skew younger—a demographic that’s turned out at higher rates in recent cycles. 

Lombardo leveraged unpopular COVID-era policies to unseat Sisolak in 2022, but his reelection bid will now hinge on his ability to withstand similar criticism from Ford. 

“The local and state level economy hasn’t been great, and incumbents always take some heat on that,” Miller says.

Although Miller believes Lombardo will “consistently and heavily outspend Ford” through November, he doesn’t anticipate a “runaway race” for either side. 

“That’s probably going to have an effect, but it’s going to take a while for that to materialize in polls,” he says. “And if the polls continue to show this thing as tight as they’ve been showing it, Lombardo will probably turn increasingly negative as it gets closer.”

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