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Six teams to target for your NCAA Tournament betting

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Tennessee guard Kennedy Chandler (1) shoots against Arkansas
Photo: AP Photo

Your tournament bracket was due days ago and might already be busted, but sportsbooks allow for the chance to stay in the action regardless in the biggest betting event of the year. Not only will there be several betting options available for every game—props to go with traditional spreads and totals — but books will update their future odds to win regions and the national championship frequently.Here are six teams—one pick from each seed—that are worth considering betting as the tournament goes on, both from a game-by-game and futures perspective, and why they might offer value.

No. 1 seed Kansas

Pre-tournament odds: 8-to-1 to win the title, +175 to win the Midwest Region

The Jayhawks are almost certainly the weakest No. 1 seed, but they somehow received the easiest draw from a power-rating perspective.

There’s not a single team in the Midwest Region that should be able to slow their combination of athleticism on the wings with size and strength inside the paint. Kansas is also peaking going into the tournament with five straight wins and four straight covers.

March disappointment has been no stranger to the Jayhawks under coach Bill Self—including a blowout 85-51 upset ouster to USC in the round of 32 last year—but it would take another letdown this year to keep them out of the Final Four.

No. 2 seed Kentucky

Pre-tournament odds: 8-to-1 to win the title, +240 to win the East Region

Kentucky’s reputation under coach John Calipari is for young, high-flying teams, but this year’s group goes against the grain as a more veteran, tough-minded group.

That could help the Wildcats reach their first Final Four since 2015. No teams in their path can match them from a rebounding perspective, with junior big man Oscar Tshiebwe leading the nation at 15.1 rebounds per game.

Tshiebwe was the most valuable player in the country by several metrics, and if the old adage about backing the team with the best player when it matters most rings true, Kentucky could be unbeatable.

No. 3 seed Tennessee

Pre-tournament odds: 20-to-1 to win the title, 6-to-1 to win the South Region

Don’t tell Tennessee that Kentucky is unbeatable. The Volunteers defeated the Wildcats in two of three tries this year, including in the semifinals of the SEC tournament.

Tennessee gives every opponent fits with its defensive efficiency, rating third in the nation in the category by Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. The difference between the Volunteers and the other defensively led contenders? They can also light it up on the offensive end behind star freshman point guard Kennedy Chandler.

Final Four teams are typically well-rounded, and few teams in the field are as well-rounded as Tennessee.

No. 4 seed Illinois

Pre-tournament odds: 50-to-1 to win the title, 10-to-1 to win the South Region

The Illini might enter the tournament as the field’s most undervalued team.

They rate fifth in the nation by ShotQuality’s adjusted shot quality metric, meaning they’re attempting high-quality looks and preventing opponents from doing the same as well as any team in the nation. The problem is, they were stuck in a rugged, parity-stricken Big Ten Conference and racked up too many losses to be considered a true contender despite winning the league’s regular-season title.

A potential round-of-32 showdown against No. 5 seed Houston, which reached the Final Four last year, looms, but Illinois is more than capable of beating anyone.

No. 5 seed St. Mary’s

Pre-tournament odds: 100-to-1 to win the title, 20-to-1 to win the East Region

Filtered only for games during the past month, St. Mary’s rates as the sixth-most-efficient team in the nation by Bart Torvik’s advanced statistics.

The Gaels are the only team to have beaten top overall seed Gonzaga since the calendar flipped to 2022, and they did it by 10 points near the end of the regular season.

This looks like coach Randy Bennett’s best team, and that’s saying something, considering he’s built the Gaels into one of the preeminent mid-major programs by winning at least one tournament game in three previous seasons. Not many will bet on them getting by No. 4 seed UCLA—seventh by Torvik’s numbers over the past month—in a potential round-of-32 matchup, but that might be a mistake.

No. 6 seed Texas

Pre-tournament odds: 100-to-1 to win the title, 20-to-1 to win the East Region

Texas has underachieved this season, but from a pure talent perspective, isn’t outgunned by many teams.

The Longhorns, for instance, were picked to finish ahead of their East Region’s top seed, Baylor, in the Big 12 Conference preseason poll. Perhaps the tournament is where it finally all comes together for Texas, behind the inside-out duo of Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen.

There’s precedence of a team coached by Chris Beard doing so—he’s taken a pair of less-talented Texas Tech squads on deep runs in the last four years.

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Case Keefer

Case Keefer has spent more than a decade covering his passions at Greenspun Media Group. He's written about and supervised ...

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