It’s widely known that young voters typically have lower turnout rates compared to other age groups. And that means they’re power is largely untapped at the polls.
During the past 10 years, the number of active Nevada registered voters age 18-24 has increased from 108,740 in 2013 to 198,713 in 2022—83%, the largest jump of any age group, and considerably higher than the 45% overall increase across all age groups during that time frame.
With Nevada’s midterm gubernatorial and congressional races expected to be close, the growing and diverse young voting bloc could be the key to the election’s outcomes, says Dan Lee, associate professor of political science at UNLV.
“Low turnout among young voters is one of the biggest factors that could lead to the ‘red wave’ election many people are expecting,” Lee says. “They simply are not as motivated to turn out this year compared to 2018 and 2020.”
In contrast with the 2018 midterm and 2020 presidential election, when young voters’ overwhelming disapproval for then-President Donald Trump helped bring about “blue waves,” this year’s election has not stoked their interest to the same degree. “The economy (inflation) is hurting them as well, hence Biden’s (and Democrats’) low approval,” Lee explains.
Overall, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll of fewer than 800 likely voters found that the majority plan to vote for a Republican in upcoming congressional races. Respondents who were most concerned with the economy favored Republicans by more than a 2-to-1 margin, according to a New York Times report accompanying the poll.
Democrats had the highest rate of support among respondents age 18-29, 52% of which said they plan to vote for Democrats in the congressional election. Hispanic and younger voters “appeared to separate their frustration with the White House from their voting plans,” the Times report noted.
As expected in a midterm race, many voters are swinging away from the sitting president’s party. But Democrats would do well to establish loyalty among the group of voters who support them most, Lee says.
“Young voters will play a crucial role for the Democratic Party in the coming years,” Lee says. “And although Biden has pushed through policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (which included investments in clean energy) and student loan forgiveness, those things might not be enough to draw young voters to the polls. That’s where Democratic strategists are hoping an issue like abortion can help.”
Sy Bernabei, executive director of LGBTQ advocacy nonprofit Gender Justice Nevada, says it’s not necessarily the names on the ballot that matter to young voters. The issues alone can be a rallying cry.
Bernabei has seen community enthusiasm surrounding Nevada Ballot Question 1, which would add an equal rights amendment to Nevada’s constitution and advance the fight for gender equality. Gender Justice Nevada has been talking on Facebook, Instagram and TikTok, at PRIDE events and at gay bars about the ballot initiative.
“We started ringing this alarm months ago,” Bernabei says, adding that many of Gender Justice’s members are young voters. “Because of what happened with Roe v. Wade, we see them coming after equal marriage next.”
Furthermore, the LGBTQ community has been motivated after seeing hundreds of pieces of proposed or passed legislation discriminating against transgender people, Bernabei says. They want to set the record straight, when right-wing politicians villainize trans peers as though they’re “grooming and harming” kids with prescribed puberty blockers and gender-affirming health care.
“I’ve seen a huge increase in people coming in for information and education,” Bernabei says. “Trans folks realize this culture war is happening now and is directed at them. They know the most power they have now is as a voter … getting people to the polls … getting people in the Senate to codify Roe and equal marriage.”
Nevada Ballot Question 3, which would open primaries to nonpartisan voters and establish ranked choice voting, could also help draw young voters to the polls. While the 18-24 age group comprises nearly 11% of total active registered voters in Nevada, it also makes up a sizable 16% of the growing pool of nonpartisan and minor party voters, according to September data from the Nevada Secretary of State.
Per reports from that office, as of October 4, approximately 37% of total active voters are registered nonpartisan, Independent, Libertarian, or members of other minor parties, up from previous years—and more in total than either active Democrat (33%) or Republican (30%) registration rates.
The nonpartisan lean is even stronger in the 18-24 age group, with more than half of those active voters registered nonpartisan (54%), followed by Democrat (31%) and Republican (15%).
In part, the increase in Nevada voters registered as nonpartisan is due to an automatic voter registration law that went into effect in 2020. But over the past decade, at least one-third of active registered voters age 18-24 were registered nonpartisan, according to data from the Secretary of State.
“Young voters do make up a large portion of nonpartisan voters,” Lee says. “They just have weaker partisan attachments, because they simply have had less experience with the political world and political parties.”
Tethering more partisan attachments from young voters played a role in Biden’s 2020 win. According to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), voters age 18-29 nationwide provided 50% turnout for the 2020 election, an 11-point increase since 2016.
Participation was even higher for young Nevada voters in 2020, CIRCLE estimates, with 53% turnout from the 18-29 age group and 61% turnout from voters 19 and younger.
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