In a classic Seinfeld episode—as if they're not all classic—George is sitting in the coffee shop with Jerry and Kramer when he pulls out a picture of a co-worker, whom he insists looks like Sugar Ray Leonard, and offers to bet that two out of the next three people he asks would agree with him.
Kramer: "How much? $100? $200? $1,000?"
Jerry: "Hey, wait a second. ... You know he's not supposed to bet."
Kramer: "C'mon, Jerry, it's a lock!"
Jerry: "Kramer, you had this thing under control for almost three years now. Don't start again."
Kramer: "But it's a LOCK, Jerry!"
This is exactly how I feel about this week's best bet, the Seattle Seahawks. Fresh off a bye following an impressive 3-0 start, the Seahawks are favored by seven at home against the Rams on Sunday.
Yes, St. Louis destroyed the 49ers in San Francisco last week, but here's the rub: A Pop Warner team from Ely could give this year's 49ers a game. Most NFL coaches would realize this ... except the Rams' Mike Martz, who's just dumb enough to believe that last week's win will catapult St. Louis to the Super Bowl.
Reality check: The Rams' two victories have come against the Arizona Cardinals (barely) and the 49ers—two foes about as formidable as Argentina was against Great Britain in the Falkland Islands. Now they go on the road for a second straight week, against a division rival that is clicking on both sides of the ball. Plus, it's Martz vs. Mike Holmgren. And Seattle is laying only a touchdown? Oh, it's a lock, all right!
Texans +4 vs. Vikings Watch the Vikings go up and down the field at will, only to implode in the red zone like a Vegas hotel. Memo to Vikings QB Duante Culpepper: It's a football, not a hot potato.
Patriots -13.5 vs. Dolphins Normally, I would never lay nearly two TDs in an NFL game. However, the Patriots are going for a record 19 straight victories, and, well, the Dolphins aren't really an NFL team now, are they?
Jets -7 vs. Bills I remember the first time I learned that they shot racehorses that suffer broken legs. I can't help but think Drew Bledsoe is headed for a similar fate.
Lions +7 at Falcons I'll believe the Falcons are for real about the same time I believe the Hilton sisters are about to cure cancer.
Last week: 4-1 (0-1 Best Bet)
Season: 10-10 (1-3 Best Bet).