It's one of the most fundamental running plays in football. It's also one of the most fundamental terms in football wagering. It's the Trap, and I fell victim to it twice in Week 1.
If you visited this space last week, you know my best bet was the Patriots laying three-and-a-half points to the Colts. I was so confident when I approached the betting window, I felt like I was a county commissioner and the sports book was a strip-club owner. Final score: Patriots 27, Colts 24.
The other game that had me counting my money before kickoff involved the Ravens giving three points to the Browns in Cleveland. Everyone loved the Ravens in this game, as Baltimore destroyed the bumbling Browns twice last year and entered this season as the chic pick of a lot of "experts" to win the AFC North and contend for the Super Bowl. So, what happened? The Browns cruised, 20-3. Moral of the story: As in all other aspects of life, if something looks too good to be true, it probably is. Right, Dario Herrera?
Steelers +4.5 vs. Ravens Here's another thing I (re-)learned in Week 1: Never, ever, lay points, especially on the road, with a quarterback who's only marginally better than you! Ravens QB Kyle Boller couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat.
Cardinals +8.5 vs. Patriots I took 11 points with the Cardinals last week against the Rams, and they delivered one of my two wins. Actually, they should've won the game outright. Now they're getting 8 and a half at home against a team that oddsmakers will overvalue all year long. Giddy-up!
Redskins -3 at Giants Remember what I just said about trap games and things being too good to be true? Forget that crap. Seriously, the Giants are bad—I'm talking Cincinnati-Bengals-of-the-1990s bad.
Chargers-Jets over 45.5 points These two defenses could each field 12 players, and Chargers RB Ladainian Tomlinson and Jets RB Curtis Martin might still combine for 400 rushing yards.
Best Bet: Vikings-Eagles over 48.5 points Last week, I hesitated in taking the "over" in the Broncos-Chiefs matchup because the total was 48, and I've been kicking myself ever since. (Seriously, you should see the bruises on my ass!) I'm not about to make that mistake again in this Monday Night Football showdown. Don't be surprised if Randy Moss and Terrell Owens are still running when you wake up on Tuesday.
Last week: 2-3 (Best Bet: 0-1)