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55 things to know about Super Bowl betting (from back then to right now)

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Quarterbacks Tom Brady (left) and Patrick Mahomes

The Super Bowl has taken on a life of its own in Las Vegas over the past 55 years, with betting becoming an inescapable part of the “Big Game.”

To celebrate, let’s take a trip through the big numbers, big moments and big bets, and took a look at where this year’s game—with the Kansas City Chiefs installed as 3-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers—fits in.

Here are 55 things to know about Super Bowl betting through the years.

1. The Chiefs are looking to become just the eighth team in the past 45 years (which is as far back as reliable data exists) to win the Super Bowl after coming into the season as the betting favorite, according to sportsoddshistory.com. In January 2020, Kansas City opened at 7-to-1 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to win Super Bowl 55.

2. The Buccaneers are looking to tie for the biggest opening-odds long shot to ever win the Super Bowl after the SuperBook posted them at 60-to-1. That was, of course, before the free-agent signing of quarterback Tom Brady, which sent their odds way down to 10-to-1. Brady was also involved in both other instances in which 60-to-1 teams prevailed. It was the Patriots’ price ahead of their victory over the Rams in 2002’s Super Bowl 36, the start of the quarterback’s legend. And the 2016-2017 Philadelphia Eagles were also 60-to-1 dogs before eventually upsetting Brady’s Patriots in Super Bowl 52.

3. The most recent team to win the Super Bowl as the preseason favorite? Brady’s 2018-2019 Patriots, which opened at 5-to-1 before going on to beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl 53.

4. The most memorable victory of that 2019 postseason for Brady and New England was a 37-31 victory at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. The Pats were 3-point underdogs, and the over/under was 56.5 points—exactly like Super Bowl 55’s current odds.

Mike Evans

Mike Evans

5. Including that 2019 game, Brady and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes have faced off four times. Although they’ve split the four meetings straight-up—with Mahomes and Kansas City holding a one-point advantage in combined scoring margin—Brady’s team has gone 3-1 against the spread. That includes a 27-24 Chiefs win as 3.5-point favorites at the Buccaneers earlier this season.

6. Both Brady and Mahomes have been historically dominant at beating the betting line throughout their respective careers, with each cashing at around a 59% clip. Brady is 198-135-10 against the spread as a starter; Mahomes is 31-20-2.

7. Despite winning the Super Bowl six times, Brady has gone 4-5 against the spread in his nine starts. His Patriots failed to cover in each of their back-to-back titles in 2004 and 2005 when they beat the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively, by three points as 7-point favorites.

8. Brady’s teams have accounted for a third of the all-time Super Bowl instances in which the point spread has come into play—only six times has a team won but not covered. The most recent: 2009, when the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Arizona Cardinals 27-23 as 7-point favorites.

Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce

9. One thing Brady has never done in the Super Bowl? Scored the first touchdown by rushing it in himself. He’s 27-to-1 to score the first touchdown of Super Bowl 55 at Circa Sports.

10. Mahomes scored the first touchdown in last year’s Super Bowl, cashing as a 20-to-1 long shot with a 1-yard touchdown run late in the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers. The payout isn’t quite as high this year—Circa offers Mahomes at 17-to-1 odds to score the first touchdown.

11. Mahomes’ two favorite targets, tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, opened as co-favorites to score the first touchdown in this year’s game at +675 apiece. Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans, who has scored first in each of his team’s past two games, has the next lowest odds at +975.

William “The Refrigerator” Perry

William “The Refrigerator” Perry

12. From a betting perspective, William “The Refrigerator” Perry scored arguably the most memorable and influential touchdown in Super Bowl history in 1986. Perry’s 1-yard TD plunge late in the Chicago Bears’ 44-3 victory over the Patriots is considered to have launched the proposition-betting craze. Sportsbooks didn’t typically post odds on particular players scoring touchdowns, but buzz had built surrounding Bears coach Mike Ditka using his 335-pound defensive lineman for goal-line carries. Then-Caesars Palace bookmaker (and current Station Casinos executive) Art Manteris looked to capitalize by setting odds on Perry scoring, according to a Yahoo! Sports story. Manteris opened the odds somewhere around 20-to-1, believing Ditka wouldn’t use Perry in a game as big as the Super Bowl after the player hadn’t registered a carry in more than two months. Bettors drove the number all the way down to 2-to-1 ahead of kickoff, setting up a loss of more than $100,000 at Caesars alone when Perry scored in garbage time.

It was controversial that Ditka let Perry run in the score instead of Bears legend Walter Payton—who would finish his career without tallying a touchdown—and ex-Chicago quarterback Jim McMahon has alleged the bet could have been the reason. Last year, when asked if Ditka bet on Perry, McMahon told Yahoo! he “wouldn’t put it past him. He likes to gamble, and he was in control of the play-calling,” McMahon said. “I couldn’t confirm or deny, but I wouldn’t doubt it. Let’s just put it that way.”

13. Prop betting has experienced exponential growth in Las Vegas in the years since Perry’s touchdown, with sportsbooks annually looking to one-up themselves and add more wagers. This year, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and William Hill alone have posted more than 1,000 different ways to bet on the game.

14. Prop betting boomed significantly during the mid-1990s when current SuperBook boss Jay Kornegay ran the Imperial Palace sportsbook. Looking to spice up what had become an annual blowout of a game—with the NFC champion beating the AFC 13 straight times from 1985-1997—Kornegay and his team more than tripled the betting options. They started printing a thick booklet of wagering options that had gamblers flocking to the stadium-seating-style sportsbook to get down action.

15. The NFC team not only won 13 straight during its stretch of dominance, but also covered in all but three games in that span—two against-the-spread losses and one push. It’s the main reason why the NFC still edges the AFC 27-25-2 all-time against the spread in Super Bowls. Straight-up, the conferences are tied with 27 victories apiece.

16. The annual NFC-AFC mismatch hit its peak in 1995, when the San Francisco 49ers were 18.5-point favorites over the San Diego Chargers—the largest Super Bowl line in history. The 49ers already had the spread covered by the early second quarter before cruising to an easy 49-26 victory behind Steve Young and Jerry Rice.

Steve Young

Steve Young

17. That 49ers’ win over the Chargers was one of just two times Nevada sportsbooks have lost money on the Super Bowl since the gaming control board began compiling the information in 1991. Still, of the game’s total handle of $69.59 million, sportsbooks lost a relatively small $396,674.

18. Nevada sportsbooks’ other—much more substantial—loss occurred in 2008, when the New York Giants shocked the undefeated Patriots as 12-point underdogs. With recreational bettors stocking up on the Giants’ money line to win outright with payouts as high as a 5-to-1, statewide sportsbooks reported a $2.57 million loss.

19. What’s believed to be the largest Super Bowl loss in Nevada sportsbook history, especially when adjusting for inflation, isn’t reflected in the gaming control board’s numbers, because it happened way back in Super Bowl 13. In the Steelers’ 35-31 win over the Dallas Cowboys in 1979—known as “Black Sunday” in casino circles—Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and in the week leading up to the game, bettors pounded the Cowboys, causing the number to drop a point. Then, on game day, the inverse happened, with a flood of Steelers -3.5 money coming in before kickoff. The final score landed right on four points—a doomsday scenario for Las Vegas casinos, which were forced to swallow a multimillion-dollar defeat. Super Bowl spreads have stayed more rigid around key numbers, like 3 and 4, ever since.

20. In the 12 years since the last loss, the house has gotten its revenge and then some, with a total Super Bowl profit just short of $105 million. Nevada sportsbooks have averaged a hold of around 7% of the total money wagered in that time.

21. Despite a couple of close calls—casinos held only 0.83% of the volume in the Green Bay Packers’ 2011 win over the Steelers and 0.7% of the Eagles’ 2018 upset of the Patriots—it’s entirely possible bettors will never beat bookies overall again. That’s partly because volume is on an upward trajectory, with more than $100 million wagered in seven straight years; generally, the hold increases with the handle.

Despite their popularity, many props aren’t conducive to profiting recreational gamblers. The most wagered-on bets annually come on rare events occurring, like a two-point conversion, safety, special teams touchdown or overtime, with gamblers seeking large payouts on small bets. But those props aren’t paying out highly enough based on their true probability, so they heavily favor the house, which knows its customers are far more likely to bet “yes” for a big return than “no” for a minimal one.

Future bets also contribute to the house’s edge; all wagers taken over the year on teams to win the Super Bowl factor into the state’s postgame report. Sportsbooks with fair future prices are few and far between (though they do exist), since most casinos skew the numbers heavily in their favor with theoretical hold percentages sometimes stretching higher than 50%.

22. Even the coin toss works against bettors. It’s annually one of the most wagered-on aspects of the game—“heads” was the most popular bet among more than 1,000 props at William Hill last year, and “tails” came in third. That’s despite both sides being priced at -105 (risking $1.05 to win $1)—some sportsbooks even boost it as high as -115 (risking $1.15 to win $1)—for what’s truly a 50/50 proposition. Perhaps the best Super Bowl betting advice, therefore, would be: If you must bet the coin toss, bet it with your friends at Even money.

And for what it’s worth (nothing), tails has hit in two straight years and gone 29-25 all-time in Super Bowls.

23. Famed prop bets—like length of the national anthem, the color of Gatorade dumped on the winning coach and halftime-act songs performed—aren’t permitted in Nevada sportsbooks. State gaming regulations state that bets can only be booked from statistics found in the box score, or those otherwise successfully petitioned to post.

24. Most bettors like to back favorites, and that’s traditionally been a winning strategy in Super Bowls. Favorites have gone 29-23-2 against the spread—and 36-17 straight-up—in Super Bowl history, including cashes in each of the past two years.

25. Not surprisingly, sportsbooks have experienced their two most successful Super Bowls when underdogs covered. Nevada casinos held a record-high 17% and made $15.4 million in 2005, when the Patriots beat the Eagles 27-24 as 7-point favorites. The hold was a bit less—16.5%—in 2014, when the Seattle Seahawks smashed the Denver Broncos 43-8 as 2-point underdogs, but the gross profit of $19.67 million from that game stands as a record.

26. Sportsbooks would have won even more in 2014 were it not for a first play that swung hundreds of thousands of dollars in favor of bettors. Broncos center Manny Ramirez snapped the ball over quarterback Peyton Manning’s head to set up a safety, posted as high as 100-to-1 to be the first score of the game and as high as 10-to-1 to occur at any point in the game.

27. The Seahawks’ 37-point cover in 2014 was the largest in Super Bowl history and gave bookmakers an easy win in a game where the vast majority of the action had come in on the Broncos.

28. Seattle became the rare defending champion that found bettors doubting it in 2015, when heavy Super Bowl action came in against the Seahawks once again. Seattle nearly provided another financial windfall for the house in a pick’em game against the Patriots, before quarterback Russell Wilson threw an interception to cornerback Malcolm Butler at the goal line in the final seconds. The controversial passing call likely swung multimillion dollars in favor of bettors—quite possibly the biggest single-play change of fortune ever. Nevada sportsbooks made a relatively small $3.2 million profit, with a 2.8% hold, on the Patriots’ 28-24 win.

29. Another recent memorable betting moment came when the Patriots rallied from 28-3 down to the Falcons in 2017 to win 34-28 in overtime. New England got to as high as 10-to-1 on the in-game betting line in the third quarter, implying nearly a 95 percent chance of an Atlanta victory.

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

30. While in-game betting attracts a microscopic fraction of the betting action compared to more traditional options, its popularity increases each year as more bettors wager from mobile devices instead of in-person. A record amount of in-game bets will almost surely be placed on this year’s Super Bowl.

31. The Chiefs have been particularly detrimental to the house via in-game wagers this postseason. First, in the divisional rounds, bettors loaded up on the Cleveland Browns when Mahomes left the game with a concussion in the third quarter. Without the reigning Super Bowl MVP, the Browns covered all in-game point spreads by cutting their deficit from 22-10 to a 22-17 final score.

Then, Kansas City went down 9-0 to Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game, and bettors pounced on the brief opportunity to get the Chiefs as a slight underdog. The Chiefs ultimately came back for a 38-24 victory. Jason Scott, BetMGM’s vice president of trading, described the losses as substantial.

32. Never feel bad for the house, though, especially not in this case. Unlike this year’s AFC Championship Game, the NFC Championship Game went down as a significant financial windfall for casinos. The vast majority of the money was on the Packers as 3-point home favorites against the Buccaneers, but Green Bay never led in the game. Tampa Bay held on for a 31-26 victory that far outweighed any Kansas City losses, at least at BetMGM. “Tampa’s win was the best result of the past year on any one event in any proper sport,” Scott said.

33. For most of the second half of the current NFL season, Chiefs vs. Packers was the most likely Super Bowl matchup by the betting odds. Kansas City was installed as a 1.5-point favorite over Green Bay on the lookahead lines for the potential matchup.

34. From an action standpoint, bookmakers prefer Chiefs vs. Buccaneers for one reason—it allows for a more defined point spread and money line. The Chiefs are currently a -170 favorite to win outright on the money line, with the Buccaneers coming back at +150.

When the point spread is below 3, the role of the money line is minimized because there’s little difference between it and backing either team on the spread. That won’t be the case this year, when many Buccaneers backers will eschew the point spread and instead angle for the higher payout on them winning outright.

35. That’s why bookmakers’ ideal Super Bowl result is often the favorite winning without covering the spread. That will certainly be the case this year, when a Chiefs win by a point or two could make for a record in terms of hold percentage.

36. Each of the past two Super Bowls had spreads of less than 3, and it’s no coincidence sportsbooks fell short of setting an all-time handle record without the money line influence. The last time there was a real money line—in 2018—bettors loaded up on the Eagles at around +180 ahead of their 41-33 upset of Brady’s Patriots. It was a big reason bettors risked a state-record $158.58 million that year.

37. Super Bowl 52, played in 2018, was also the last time the “Big Game” went over the total—the combined 75 points blew past the 49-point over/under before the end of the third quarter. That 26-point surplus was the furthest a Super Bowl has ever eclipsed the sportsbooks’ total.

38. The next year was the polar opposite. Brady’s Patriots were back, but this time slogged through a 13-3 victory over the Rams in a game with an over/under of 56 points. The 40-point deficit marks the easiest an under has ever cashed in a Super Bowl.

39. Over/unders have been more reciprocal than point spreads over the course of Super Bowl history. Overs currently hold a 27-26 edge going into this year’s game.

40. But doesn’t that only add up to 53 games, when there have been 54 previous Super Bowls? Yes, but there was no total posted on Super Bowl 1 between the Chiefs and Packers in 1967. It wasn’t until the next year that bookmakers fully adopted over/unders—already popular in European soccer markets—for American football.

Joe Namath

Joe Namath

41. Super Bowl 3 presented one of the biggest upsets in the history of sports, and the betting line matches every bit with the legend. The New York Jets were 18-point underdogs— the second-largest spread ever in the Super Bowl—ahead of their 16-7 victory over the Baltimore Colts in a game before which quarterback Joe Namath had famously guaranteed victory.

42. Another double-digit underdog won the next year, in 1970, when the Chiefs beat the Vikings 23-7 as 12-point underdogs. That means the Chiefs have won and covered in both of their past two Super Bowl appearances—separated by 50 years—with their only failure coming in Super Bowl 1 when they lost 35-10 as 14-point underdogs to Vince Lombardi, Bart Starr and the Packers.

43. Only two other double-digit underdogs have won the Super Bowl, and once again, they’ve both involved Brady. Along with the Giants ruining the Patriots’ undefeated run in 2012, New England spoiled one of the best seasons in NFL history in 2001. The St. Louis Rams were 16-2 with a +253 point differential and came in as 14-point favorites ahead of New England’s 20-17 victory behind the then-24-year old Brady.

Charles Barkley

Charles Barkley

44. Brady’s first Super Bowl is remembered locally for the pair of big bets it cashed for a celebrity. Then recently retired NBA superstar Charles Barkley put $500,000 on the Patriots +14 at Mandalay Bay and added another $50,000 on the money line of more than +600, according to the Action Network. That meant Barkley made out with an $800,000 score.

45. Barkley gave $100,000 of it back by betting against Brady in the Super Bowl at Mandalay Bay … 16 years later. Barkley was on the Falcons +2.5 in the 2017 Super Bowl and told ESPN he was “counting my money” when they got out to a 28-3 lead before their improbable collapse.

46. Another professional athlete who doubles as a notorious gambler nabbed his own big score on the Super Bowl a year before Barkley. Golfer Phil Mickelson placed a $20,000 wager on the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl before the season at 22-to-1 odds. After the Ravens beat the Giants 34-7 as 3-point favorites in the 2001 Super Bowl, Mickelson filled a private jet full of family and friends to come to Las Vegas and share in the winnings.

47. Former casino owner and Vegas legend Bob Stupak is said to have started the fascination with big names placing big bets. In 1989, Stupak put in what was thought to be the largest wager in sports betting history at the time—$1.05 million on the Cincinnati Bengals +7 against the San Francisco 49ers, at the now-defunct Little Caesar’s Gambling Casino. Cincinnati covered throughout the game, but a late Joe Montana touchdown pass gave San Francisco a 20-16 win.

48. Despite how it might seem—given all the reports of huge winning tickets—not all six- to seven-figure bets cash. In fact, last year ESPN reported that only one $1 million bet was placed—on the 49ers to win outright at +120. That made for quite the painful loss when the Chiefs erased a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 31-20, and the bettor has remained anonymous. Turns out, gamblers like to share news of their wins more than their losses. Who knew?

Bob Stupak

Bob Stupak

49. What’s likely to wind up as the largest reported wager on this year’s game came in unusually early. On January 29, a bettor in Nevada placed a $2.3 million bet to win $2 million on Tampa Bay +3.5 on BetMGM’s mobile app. (The biggest bets typically come in closer to kickoff, so be on the lookout for more reports leading up to Super Bowl Sunday.) The massive wager was a surprise not only for its timing, but also because there was a question as to how many seven-figure bets would come in locally this year at all. Tourism numbers are way down with the pandemic, of course, and the expansion of sports betting could also limit big bets. Wagering is now available legally in 20 states plus Washington, D.C. “Do the big guys fly in?” BetMGM’s Scott asked. “We’ll find out. They may find a way to bet somewhere else in the country more easily during COVID times.”

50. The presence of “the big guys” placing bets will be a factor in determining whether the state has a chance to set a handle record for the fourth time in six years. The consensus is that it’s a long shot because of the coronavirus—but not entirely impossible.

51. It could happen anyway, though, because the betting handle didn’t really drop off during the regular season. Nevada saw a direct benefit in sports betting’s increased visibility, with November setting records for overall football handle in a month with $502 million wagered and net win with $56 million, according to figures released by the Gaming Control Board. “Frankly, it’s been a positive football season for all the bookmakers,” Scott said. “I think we’re all pretty happy with the results.”

52. A late-season swoon by both the Chiefs and Buccaneers certainly contributed to sportsbooks’ record-setting November. They were two of the most popularly bet teams all year on a game-by-game basis, but Kansas City went 1-3 against the spread in November, and Tampa Bay went 2-3.

53. Before the AFC Championship Game against the Bills, the Chiefs had failed to cover in eight of nine contests. That leaves them with an 8-10 against-the-spread record heading into Super Bowl 55 with a real chance to become the rare champion that’s been unprofitable to bet on throughout the season. It’s been more than 20 years since a team has won the Super Bowl with a losing against-the-spread record.

54. Many sportsbooks, including William Hill, have a liability on the Buccaneers winning the Super Bowl from a futures perspective because of the high price at which they were available before signing Brady.

But that’s not the case everywhere. At BetMGM, the Chiefs are actually a worst-case scenario—and for a unique reason. “There’s been a lot of people taking these parlays across sports, and we’ve had an interesting situation where the Dodgers were favored all year and won, the Lakers were favored or close to it all year and won, and now Kansas City has been the favorite all year—and the most popular team,” Scott said.

55. Are we in the early stages of a Chiefs dynasty, not unlike the one Brady built with the Patriots? The odds would indicate so. Kansas City is the 5-to-1 favorite to win next year’s Super Bowl at the SuperBook. Tampa Bay is tied for the fifth-lowest odds, at 12-to-1.

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Case Keefer

Case Keefer has spent more than a decade covering his passions at Greenspun Media Group. He's written about and supervised ...

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